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Why this angel is not investing in social networks

I recently had the privilege of speaking at the Technology Tasmania 2010 Conference in Hobart organised by TASICT. The conference was an excellent event, with strong local support and keynote speakers from around the country and overseas.

During the final panel session, a young entrepreneur asked me an interesting question, “If Twitter hadn’t happened yet and you had the chance to invest in it at start-up, would you?”

As it turns out this is quite relevant as I did have the chance to invest in Twitter during a very early funding round through my own networks in Silicon Valley.

I turned the offer down.

Why didn’t I invest in Twitter?

First, the idea of a service that has millions of people streaming their free flow of consciousness onto the Internet in little bite size chunks held little appeal for me.

Second, the even more bizarre idea that there are millions of other people out there spending all their time reading those chunks I still find quite astonishing. (I don’t know where they all find the time!?!)

Now, in hindsight, I know that Twitter has grown well beyond these first impressions and, indeed, of all the major social networks, I suspect that Twitter has the greatest potential to monetise its millions of eyeballs profitably.

Twitter took advantage of the convergence of the Internet and mobile computing, specifically, mobile phones.

A tweet fits within the requirements of the Short Message Service (SMS) which, for many traditional telcos, has become one of their fastest growing and most profitable revenue streams. Those companies just adore the millions of customers who feel compelled to disgorge their daily lives upon the world in 140 character snippets.

Then there are those millions of folks who are busy “following” a tweeter (or ten or one hundred or many more!) and busily retweeting, so that the first SMS tweet can spawn an ever-expanding army of fee-paying repetitions like the proverbial ripples from the pebble in the pond.

These days, Twitter is building new capabilities that will empower companies to make effective use of the Twitterverse for all sorts of commercial purposes from basic word-of-mouth advertising to rapid response customer support and more esoteric fee-for-service ecommerce outcomes.

Having built it, they have come.

Now the folk at Twitter (and their investors) are eager to figure out how to get the cash rolling in from both customers and users.

What about MySpace, Facebook and YouTube?

The other leading social networks also came to prominence by exploiting a trend — an increase in capacity and capability of the Internet that would support stickier interactions.

MySpace and Facebook, shortly after, came to the fore when the opportunity arose to exploit first music and then photos and finally video with YouTube. These approaches made automatic allies out of the companies that get paid for moving the bits and bytes about the Internet. (The same way that Twitter attracted automatic allies.)

To be sure, there were short-term cries of anguish as the infrastructure was stressed but, the network operators all happily built out their infrastructure so those cries were more about missing out on the short-term profits than about opposing the social networks.

Investing in social networks

So, reinterpreting the question in Hobart, will we invest in any new social networking opportunity?

I still see yet another (and another and another) social network play from an Australian entrepreneur every week or two.

Sadly, these tend to be largely me-too type opportunities seeking to emulate one of the two or three major networks with some marginal wrinkle.

For me to get excited about investing and to convince my colleagues to invest, I need to see someone who is going to leverage a very real and sustainable aspect of the changes in technology and do so in a way that co-opts major companies as supporters.

That strategic synergy of making other firms more revenue and profits is essential for an enterprise that is unable to monetise its own services at the outset.

A social network that uses existing technology and simply focuses on an under-served niche market may well succeed. However, it is unlikely to produce the exponential value growth that offers the rewards to match the risk of early-stage investment.

It was a great question and triggered a convergence of my own thoughts.

As an early-stage investor for over two decades, I am inclined to seek opportunities that can make a big difference by introducing or exploiting pervasive technology. On the Internet, I prefer opportunities that have both customers and users over those that only have users.

Similarly, in digital media and software applications I like ventures that are selling a benefit driven value to customers. Advertising is a valid revenue stream but, there are very few businesses that can be born today to grow and survive exclusively on winning a large share of the advertising pie.

Australian entrepreneurs are as likely to give birth to the next Google, Twitter, or Facebook as are any other entrepreneurs. What did I learn from turning down Twitter? The companies that succeed will be the ones that offer value to both users and customers (there is a distinction) and, in doing so, create the most allies.

Jordan Green is an experienced executive, entrepreneur, engineer, venture capitalist and Angel investor. He has over twenty-eight years experience in growing and advising technology oriented companies in Australia, USA, Asia and Europe. A Silicon Valley software veteran, Jordan was a founding partner of one of the best performing venture capital fund managers in Australia, he is co-founder and Deputy Chairman of the Australian Association of Angel Investors and Jordan founded and leads Melbourne Angels Inc.

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  • http://steamcatapult.com/ Dave Pinsen

    Interesting. I have an idea for a social media business that would have a real, non-ad, revenue source. If you want to discuss it, Jordan, feel free to drop me a note.

    [Reply]

    MADinMelbourne Reply:

    wikileaks??

    [Reply]

    Dave Pinsen Reply:

    Nope.

    ________________________________

    [Reply]

    Fredrick Reply:

    an idea or an opportunity?

    [Reply]

  • Harold

    Unfortunately we know the “it will never work” line from Angel Investors all too well….

    [Reply]

  • Simon

    I wouldn't have invested either.
    I still wouldn't. That night sound strange as there is money to be made but the wheels WILL fall off. No one has time really. With that in mind it is just gambling.

    [Reply]

  • Studyingagain

    is there an angels group in brisbane and how do i get in touch with them? is it a group investment or a personal investment in the information on melbourne angels site.

    [Reply]

    Jordan Reply:

    Yes, there is a group, called Brisbane Angels. You can find their details in the AAAI Group directory at http://www.aaai.net.au/membership/angel-group-d….

    In most Angel groups the investment decision is a personal decision. Some groups syndicate their investments so they represent only a single new shareholder for the company in which they are investing.

    [Reply]

  • Clint

    I would not invest in Twitter then and or now. There is something to be said for a good product that does something rather than fill a social void. Just because you can doesn't mean it has to be, just because millions of people use it doesn't mean it is good. If I am to invest it is because I believe in the intrinsic value of what I am investing not because it has a potential to be seen by a million eyeballs.

    [Reply]

  • http://www.SocialRabbit.net Social Rabbit

    Love your comments Jordan, particularly that you look for something for both customers and users when looking at an investment.

    [Reply]

  • http://twitter.com/peterwallhead Peter Wallhead

    Great article and fuller explanation Jordan.

    Thanks for taking my question at the conference too :)

    Regards,

    The “young entrepreneur” that asked you the question.

    [Reply]

  • Ashley

    Very very interesting reading!

    Related, startups and entrepreneurs seeking funding and other resources for their business should also have a look at http://www.adwebix.com – an online service connecting entrepreneurs with investors.

    Members can create profiles, post funding request ads, source early stage investment deals, get more exposure, contact other members and more.

    Members are Entrepreneurs, Investors, Professionals, Startups, Companies looking to grow their business and more.

    It's free and easy to use.

    Best regards,
    Ashley.
    http://www.adwebix.com

    [Reply]

  • lisahjorten

    Great differentiation between “customers” and “users”. The idea of millions of “users” or, “eyeballs”, was a big part of the last internet bubble and bust. At the time, I had a traditional software company with hundreds of paying customers. One of our competitors had thousands of users. At the time, it was hard not to feel envious at times but, fortunately, we stayed the course.

    Now, I wonder when the social network bubble will burst, and it will, as all things over-heated do. I wrote a related post, “Is Social Media a Ponzi Scheme?”. http://bit.ly/9WDsXY

    [Reply]

  • http://walteradamson.com Walter Adamson

    Understand your reasoning, but really, a collection of “common” truisms culminating in why you are the same as 99.99% of other “investors” is surely not that enlightening? I think a more interesting post would be from those that DO choose to invest in Facebook and Twitter, and how they make those decisions which set them apart from the rest of us. What is their mental model of the world and what can we learn from it?
    Walter @g2m
    http://xeesm.com/walter

    [Reply]

  • http://www.aaai.net.au Jordan Green

    Thanks Walter for your comment. Sorry that you felt my article was of little help and represented “”common” truisms”. No doubt you are better informed on social networks than many others. For the record, I did not title or subtitle this article with the words you see above. I did not say that I did not invest in Twitter. My investments are private.

    If you would like to hear from people who have invested in Facebook, Twitter, etc. there are certainly a multitude of posts that you can find to satisfy your curiosity. Of course, most of those will be from American VC investing in American ventures so the relevance of their stories to Australian entrepreneurs is somewhat limited.

    Our VC community is very small and the number of new deals in which they invest is even smaller. I am not aware of any Australian VC with expertise in social networking so one can reasonably assume they are not very likely to invest in such opportunities. That is not a criticism, it is the natural consequence of sensible investment discipline.

    I do know quite a few Angel investors who have expertise in the space and I meet/hear from many entrepreneurs with social networking ventures. I was trying to respond to the oft asked question of those entrepreneurs as to why they are failing to win investment.

    Obviously you have invested substantially in social networking so I hope you will write an article for Anthill explaining why you have done that and why you are different to 99.99% of the entrepreneurs in the space. That would certainly be a valuable sharing of your mental model and world view that would benefit those other entrepreneurs and maybe even an investor or two could learn from you. Look forward to seeing your article.

    [Reply]

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