Home News Desk iElect predicted Liberal swing in Victorian election before the pollsters

iElect predicted Liberal swing in Victorian election before the pollsters


The Victorian Election last month was not only a win for the Coalition, but also for iElect.com.au for successfully predicting the swing of the election before any traditional poll.

Whereas most pollsters continue to rely on telemarketing and focus groups, iElect was predicting a Labor lead of 51% and the Coalition 49% for the bulk of the election, which changed quickly four days from polling-day, showing a swing to 61% Coalition and 39% Labor.

Stephen Reid, the creator of iElect.com.au, said that the Victorian Election was a trial run to test an algorithm developed by online market research outfit Sentralize.com. The technology syndicates live election information, such as articles, video clips and tweets, through a topic focused website to gauge user reactions and sentiment online.

“Besides ensuring the iElect website remained up-to-date with the latest election news, Sentralize also analysed how people responded to the information to detect some interesting trends that we have never seen before,” Reid said.

“The Victorian Election for iElect was the final trial to check the reliability of the data. It is very pleasing to see the data closely match what was happening in the electorates.”

iElect will be relaunched in the new year for the New South Wales Election on 26 March 2011.

“We will be launching iElect for the New South Wales election in the new year bringing together all the elements from the Tasmanian, Federal and now Victorian iElect websites,” Reid said.

iElect for the Victorian Election was developed by Hobart-based Sentralize, which was recently awarded the Tasmanian ICT for Innovation, Emerging ICT and Digital Futures, and the President’s Choice Award for its work with iElect.